TD Cowen has raised its price target on Strategy shares after the firm said the company’s recent Bitcoin accumulation and debt management moves have improved both its per-share Bitcoin exposure and balance sheet position.
- TD Cowen raised its Strategy price target to $400 after the company bought more Bitcoin than the firm had projected for the full second quarter.
- Strategy added 24,869 BTC in one week, pushing total holdings to 843,738 BTC, according to the company’s latest filing.
According to a Tuesday research note from TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, the brokerage lifted its target on Strategy stock to $400 from $395 while keeping its Buy rating unchanged. The analysts tied the revision to stronger-than-expected treasury activity during the second quarter, particularly after the company added more Bitcoin than TD Cowen had initially projected for the entire period.
Recent capital raises have leaned heavily on preferred equity rather than common stock issuance. TD Cowen said Strategy raised nearly $1.95 billion during Q2 through preferred equity offerings, while common share sales remained limited. Nearly all of the proceeds were directed toward Bitcoin purchases, the note said.
Earlier this week, Strategy disclosed in a Form 8-K filing that it had acquired 24,869 BTC between May 11 and May 17 for about $2.01 billion. The company said it paid an average of $80,985 per Bitcoin, including fees and expenses.
Following the latest purchase, Strategy’s total holdings climbed to 843,738 BTC, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply cap. Company filings showed Strategy has spent roughly $63.87 billion building its Bitcoin position at an average acquisition cost of about $75,700 per coin.
TD Cowen now expects Strategy to purchase around 100,000 BTC during Q2 alone. Based on that pace, the brokerage increased its full-year BTC Yield estimate to 19.8% from 18.2%, while projected BTC Dollar Gain figures rose to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion.
By May 17, Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares had reached 2.21x, compared with 1.95x at the end of 2025, according to TD Cowen. The analysts said the increase supports Strategy’s financing approach because Bitcoin accumulation has continued growing faster than dilution tied to share issuance.
Convertible debt buyback supports target increase
Separate from its Bitcoin purchases, Strategy has also moved to reduce future debt obligations through a convertible note repurchase program.
Earlier filings showed the company agreed to buy back about $1.5 billion of its 2029 convertible notes for an estimated $1.38 billion. Strategy listed cash reserves, ATM proceeds, or potential Bitcoin sales among possible funding sources for the transaction.
TD Cowen said the repurchase was completed at roughly an 8% discount to face value, lowering future dilution exposure while improving the company’s credit position and refinancing profile.
Alongside the preferred share issuance, Strategy also sold 430,344 MSTR shares for about $83.7 million in net proceeds during the same May 11 to May 17 period. Regulatory filings further showed the company sold 19,519,801 STRC preferred shares, generating nearly $1.949 billion in net proceeds.
As of May 17, Strategy still had about $17.51 billion available under its STRC issuance program and another $26.27 billion remaining under its MSTR at-the-market offering plan.
Before the latest purchase disclosure became public, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at the acquisition on X by posting “Big dot energy” alongside the company’s Bitcoin tracker chart. Similar posts from Saylor have frequently appeared ahead of previous Bitcoin purchase announcements.
TD Cowen calculated its $400 valuation by applying a 3x multiple to its projected 2026 BTC Dollar Gain estimate of $15.16 billion, then adding expected year-end Bitcoin holdings worth about $132.9 billion while subtracting projected debt and preferred equity obligations.
Strategy shares closed Monday at $166.63, nearly 63% below their 52-week high of $455.90. Based on that closing price, TD Cowen’s target implied upside potential of more than 140%.
