Polymarket market on ZachXBT insider probe sees Meteora odds spike 44% in 24 hours as traders eye possible informed positioning, not yet proven.
- Meteora’s implied odds jumped from single digits to ~44% within a day, overtaking early leaders Pump.fun and Axiom in the multi-outcome market.
- Polymarket relies on UMA’s oracle and a challenge window for resolution, a system previously hit by a whale-driven governance attack on a Trump–Ukraine mineral deal market.
- U.S. lawmakers flagged prediction markets’ insider trading risk in 2025 after a suspiciously timed Polymarket win, prompting talk of new legislation and closer scrutiny.
A Polymarket prediction market launched Feb. 23 asking traders to forecast which cryptocurrency company on-chain investigator ZachXBT would expose for insider trading has itself raised questions about potential informed trading, according to social media posts and market data.
The market, titled “Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?” was created after ZachXBT announced a “major investigation” would be published Feb. 26 targeting “multiple employees who abused internal data to insider trade” at “one of crypto’s most profitable businesses,” without naming the company.
Meteora, one outcome in the multi-option market, surged from single-digit implied probability to approximately 44% within one day of the market’s launch, drawing significant trading volume, according to market snapshots. The rapid price movement prompted speculation about whether participants with non-public information drove the shift.
A user named Moritz posted on X on Feb. 24: “Isn’t it ironic that there is insider trading happening about an insider trading investigation? No one was thinking about Meteora before the prediction market went live. Yet it’s now trading at 44%, or maybe we’re being psyoped. We will find out in 2 days.”
Early market snapshots showed Pump.fun and Axiom as front-runners, while Meteora registered low probability. By Feb. 24, Meteora had become the dominant outcome, according to market data.
The market’s resolution criteria state it will settle to the company “explicitly named by ZachXBT” in the expected Feb. 26 publication, with “ZachXBT’s official communications” as the primary source of resolution, according to the contract terms.
Sharp price movements in prediction markets represent positioning and order-book dynamics but do not constitute proof of informed trading, market analysts note. The actual target of ZachXBT’s investigation will be verified only when the publication is released Feb. 26.
World Liberty Financial appeared among market outcomes with a small implied probability. Its inclusion occurred the same day the firm reported a stablecoin briefly experienced volatility before recovering and said it repelled a coordinated attack involving unauthorized access to co-founders’ X accounts. No established causal link exists between these events and the market listing.
Polymarket’s resolution process relies on an outcome proposal, a challenge window, and escalation to UMA’s dispute process if challenged. UMA’s system uses tokenholder-driven voting with commit and reveal periods.
Multiple past controversies have centered on UMA’s resolution mechanics. A Polymarket market on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wore a suit resolved “No,” triggering criticism about token-weighted voting dynamics and apparent whale influence. Another market on released files resolved “Yes,” despite critics arguing no confirming documents were released. A prior mineral-deal market was reported to have resolved incorrectly due to a governance attack by a UMA whale, according to platform users.
Polymarket US’s rulebook contains explicit prohibitions on trading on material non-public information by company personnel and affiliates and restricts the use or disclosure of such information, according to platform documentation. The practical difficulty of policing non-public information among pseudonymous external users on an international platform remains substantial, compliance experts note.
U.S. lawmakers publicly linked prediction markets to insider trading risk in early 2025 after a suspiciously timed Polymarket win tied to a geopolitical event. A member of Congress proposed legislation to address insider trading in prediction markets. Investigations found that prediction markets were vulnerable to privileged or insider information betting, particularly in geopolitics, according to congressional statements.
The contract resolves based on what ZachXBT names rather than adjudicating whether insider trading occurred, which is operationally simpler than markets requiring evidentiary judgments, according to market design experts.
The Feb. 26 publication will determine which company ZachXBT names, if any. Until then, the market’s rapid repricing represents positioning dynamics rather than confirmation of informed trading on the prediction market itself, according to market observers.
