Can the Bitcoin price recover its momentum after October’s reversal, or will Q4 extend its weakest run since 2022?
- Bitcoin price has tumbled nearly 15% after hitting $126,000 in early October, breaking its winning streak and setting a weak tone for Q4.
- Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, a stronger dollar, and slower Fed easing weighed on markets, pulling Bitcoin back near $108,000.
- Central banks added liquidity and eased tariffs to calm markets, but the impact was short-lived as investors stayed cautious through early November.
- Analysts now see $107,000 as Bitcoin’s key support, warning that a break below could trigger deeper losses in an already fragile Q4.
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Bitcoin price breaks the Uptober streak
Bitcoin entered October with confidence, extending a powerful rally that lifted prices to a record high above $126,000 on Oct. 6. What followed was a sharp and sudden pullback.
Within days, prices dropped more than 17 %, reaching about $104,500 between Oct. 10 and 11. The month closed with Bitcoin (BTC) down roughly 3.6 %, marking its first negative October since 2018. As of Nov. 3, it trades near $108,000, around 14.5 % below its monthly peak.
The decline stemmed from several connected global developments. The U.S.–China trade confrontation intensified after Washington imposed 100 % tariffs and introduced new restrictions on software exports. The move sparked heavy liquidations across crypto markets and dampened investor risk appetite.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve signaled that it may slow the pace of interest rate cuts. That stance strengthened the dollar and increased the appeal of yield-bearing assets, putting additional pressure on Bitcoin, which produces neither interest nor dividends.
Another factor is Bitcoin’s deeper integration with traditional finance. In past cycles, Bitcoin often moved independently of global markets. Today, institutional trading, ETF flows, and broader macro sentiment shape its direction far more than retail activity alone.
As a result, 2025 broke the “Uptober” streak. Bitcoin is down nearly 6 % in Q4 so far, turning what is usually a positive month for crypto into its weakest start since 2022. The question now is what lies ahead as the market moves deeper into November and the rest of Q4.
Trade truce meets tight liquidity
Early November brought what appeared to be relief for global markets. Following a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea, both nations reached a broad trade-truce framework that marks a partial de-escalation of the trade war that had intensified earlier this year.
Under the deal, China will begin lifting its export ban on automotive computer chips, including components critical to car production worldwide, addressing a major bottleneck that had disrupted global manufacturing chains.
The two sides also reached consensus on U.S. soybean exports, with China agreeing to purchase 12 million metric tons this season and 25 million tons annually for the next three years.
Additionally, the framework includes cooperation on the supply of rare earth minerals and precursor materials used in the production of the drug fentanyl.
The U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 57 % to 47 %, while China agreed to delay export restrictions on rare earths, gallium, and germanium for one year.
Yet, despite the political optics of progress, China’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. The country’s October manufacturing PMI stood at 49, extending its contraction streak to seven months and pointing to lingering weaknesses in global demand and production.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve moved slightly toward monetary easing, cutting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75–4.00 % range at its Oct. 28–29 meeting.
The decision came as unemployment inched up from 4.0 % to 4.3 %, while inflation remained around 3 % year on year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that future policy remains data dependent, and markets now expect a 70 % chance for a further rate cut in December.
A parallel move came from the U.S. central bank. The Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion in liquidity through overnight repo operations, its largest since 2020, on Oct. 31.
For Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets, greater liquidity, reduced tariffs, and easing trade tensions theoretically create a supportive backdrop, but real recovery depends on whether supply chains and credit conditions stabilize enough to renew investor confidence.
The verdict that could shake Bitcoin
The next major test for global markets, and indirectly for Bitcoin, is set to unfold at the U.S. Supreme Court. On Nov. 5, the Trump administration will face small businesses and several U.S. states that have challenged the legality of tariffs imposed earlier this year under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
The plaintiffs argue that the president exceeded his constitutional authority since the law allows regulation of trade during emergencies but does not explicitly authorize tariffs. The court’s decision is expected sometime between March and June 2026.
The case involves roughly $90 billion in import taxes already collected through September 2025, according to Wells Fargo estimates. However, administration officials warn that this figure could swell to as much as $1 trillion if the court takes until June 2026 to decide and tariffs remain in place throughout that period.
Should the court rule against the administration, those tariffs could be invalidated and refunds ordered, potentially disrupting fiscal balances and triggering volatility in the dollar and equities.
If the decision favors the White House, it would cement the executive branch’s ability to impose or adjust tariffs unilaterally, giving the U.S. president far greater flexibility in trade negotiations.
For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, this legal showdown presents a complex scenario. The asset, once celebrated for moving independently of traditional markets, now behaves much more like a macro-linked instrument.
Over the past several years, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite has risen sharply, particularly during periods of policy-driven volatility.
If the Supreme Court outcome disrupts confidence in U.S. trade policy or weakens the dollar, risk assets could see renewed speculative inflows, temporarily supporting crypto prices.
Conversely, a ruling that strengthens executive control and stabilizes the dollar could pressure Bitcoin, as investors move back toward traditional safe assets.
Analyst outlook and Bitcoin’s next move
Market sentiment remains divided on where Bitcoin heads next. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin has now tested its $107,500 support level for the third or fourth time in just two weeks, a pattern often seen before a decisive breakout or breakdown.
He warned that failure to hold this range could open the door for a retest of $100,000, which has served as Bitcoin’s psychological and technical base for much of 2025.
The repeated tests suggest that buying strength around $107,000 is weakening, while short-term volatility could rise sharply if that level gives way.
On a more macro level, Plan B, the analyst known for the stock-to-flow model, highlighted that Bitcoin closed October at $109,000, marking six straight months above $100,000. He views this range as solidifying long-term support rather than forming a short-term ceiling.
According to his model, Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits near $56,000, with the 55-day moving average at roughly $55,000. In his view, those levels form a structural floor reminiscent of early bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
Plan B also noted that the Relative Strength Index stands at 66, signaling a strong uptrend but not yet in the overheated zone that has historically preceded market tops.
Based on his stock-to-flow projections, Bitcoin’s fair value range lies between $250,000 and $1 million, though he acknowledged wide uncertainty around timing and peaks.
The bullish camp believes the absence of FOMO and the steady divergence between realized price and moving average point toward another expansion phase, while the bearish view argues that Bitcoin may have already peaked at $126,000 following the halving cycle.
Overall, Bitcoin’s near-term direction depends heavily on whether the $107,000 to $108,000 zone holds. A breakdown below could trigger a sharper correction, while stability above that level could set up the next leg higher.
For now, markets remain heated, so you should proceed with caution and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
