After Changpeng Zhao received a pardon from Trump, Polymarket traders have opened a market to bet on the odds of the former CEO coming back to Binance by the end of the year.
- Following Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao on Oct. 23, prediction markets have surged with traders assigning a 50% chance that Zhao will return to Binance by the end of 2025.
- Despite publicly stating in 2024 that he had no plans to resume his CEO role, Zhao’s continued ownership stake and recent leadership at YZi Labs leave open the possibility of his return in an advisory or strategic capacity.
On Oct. 24, the market titled “Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?” has garnered a 50% chance, with at least half of traders voting YES on a possible comeback for the former CEO. So far, the prediction market has accumulated a trading volume reaching $45,974.
The market is set to close by December 31, as traders wait and see whether this year will see the return of Binance’s former CEO and founder back at the helm after receiving an official pardon from the White House on Oct. 23.
Data on Polymarket shows that the market has been open since as early as September 19, 2025, following a year since Changpeng Zhao completed his four-month prison sentence. At the time, around 68% of traders voted YES on the possibility of Zhao returning to Binance.
Just hours before President Trump pardoned Zhao on Oct. 23, the odds of Zhao coming back to the crypto exchange had plummeted as low as 7%. The number immediately shot up to 51% after news broke of CZ receiving a pardon from the White House.
On Oct. 23, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the news that the President had pardoned the former Binance CEO, stating that “President Trump exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao” and declaring that the war on crypto waged by the Biden administration is “over.”
Responding to the news, Zhao posted on social media that he was deeply grateful for the pardon and he vowed to “do everything we can to help make America the Capital of Crypto.” The pardon comes at a time when Binance (BNB) is getting ready to re-enter the U.S market.
In September, the exchange was reportedly in talks with the Department of Justice to end its court-appointed compliance monitoring agreement ahead of schedule. However, reports say that the independent monitoring established by the Treasury Department may require additional approval from Trump or the Treasury Secretary.
Would CZ want to return to Binance?
In 2023, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was convicted of money laundering charges and sentenced to four months in prison in the United States. As part of the plea deal, Zhao had agreed to step down from his role as Binance CEO. The position of CEO was later filled by Richard Teng, who was formerly the Head of Regional Markets for Binance.
After his release in September 2024, Zhao debunked circulating claims that say he was under a “lifetime ban” from managing crypto exchanges. He stated that those words were never in his plea agreement with the government.
However, in December 2024, Zhao had stated that he had no intention of returning to Binance as a CEO even if he were allowed to do so. Though, he did say that he would not mind a pardon from the president.
Despite not being a part of Binance anymore, Zhao still owns a relatively large stake in Binance. This means that he still retains substantial influence, even if he is not involved in day-to-day management. Nevertheless, the pardon does clear the way for him to assume an active management or advisory role, should the board and regulators allow it.
In January 2025, CZ was appointed Head of YZi Labs, the venture capital arm of Binance that was previously known as Binance Labs. Since his release from prison, he has also started supporting a number of project related to web3, AI, robotics and biotechnology.
In addition, Zhao has continued to develop his education venture Giggle Academy, which recently received over $11 million worth of BNB donations.
