Ethereum price is struggling to hold momentum below $4,300 as overheated futures markets and rising exchange reserves create short-term selling pressure.
- Ethereum trades near $4,290, holding below $4,300 after a 16% monthly gain.
- Rising exchange reserves and sell-heavy futures flows point to short-term pressure.
- Technicals are mixed, but ETF inflows and treasury demand support the medium-term outlook.
As of this writing, Ethereum’s price (ETH) is up 2.2% over the previous day, trading at $4,290. The token has hovered between $4,080 and $4,776 over the last seven days, losing 9% during that time but maintaining a 16% monthly gain. Only 12% separates ETH from its peak of $4,878 set in November 2021.
Ethereum on-chain and derivatives outlook
Market analysts are pointing to a split in Ethereum’s structure. While futures activity is beginning to overheat, spot markets are still largely stable. CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan noted in an Aug. 21 analysis that exchange reserves have slightly increased, indicating that there are more coins for sale.
Furthermore, the cumulative delta data shows that there are more sell orders than buy orders, which suggests that traders are reluctant to open new long positions near current levels. Futures volume maps also show clusters of activity near recent highs, a pattern that often precedes forced liquidations and notable price swings.
The mix of slow spot flows and overheated futures has put Ethereum in a delicate position. In the short term, stretched leverage may force ETH back toward the $3,950–$4,100 range if a wave of liquidations hits the market.
However, the medium-term outlook is still positive. Institutional exchange-traded fund inflows, the growing use of ETH in corporate treasuries, and Ethereum’s expanding role in real-world asset tokenization continue to provide strong underlying demand.
The report suggests that once leverage resets and sell-dominant flows subsides, Ethereum might begin to rise again and retest resistance above $4,300.
Ethereum price technical analysis
The daily chart for Ethereum shows a mixed setup. At 57, the relative strength index is in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, even though momentum and the MACD are bearish, indicating waning upside.
With the 10-day exponential and simple moving averages flashing sell signals just above current prices, short-term moving averages are positioned against bulls. Longer time frames continue to support the uptrend, though, as the 20-, 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages are still comfortably in buy territory.
This suggests that although there is clear short-term resistance, the overall structure of the rally has not yet broken down. Bollinger Bands are becoming tighter around the current price range, which is often a sign of increased volatility.
Ethereum may regain strength and attempt another breakout above $4,300 and toward $4500 once futures positioning normalizes, but a decline toward the $3,950-$4,100 range is still possible if leverage unwinds.
