{"id":8314,"date":"2025-08-20T09:32:07","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T09:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-prediction-market-braces-for-fed-policy-shift-at-key-support\/"},"modified":"2025-08-20T09:32:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T09:32:21","slug":"bitcoin-price-prediction-market-braces-for-fed-policy-shift-at-key-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-prediction-market-braces-for-fed-policy-shift-at-key-support\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin price prediction: Market braces for Fed policy shift at key support"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">With $110,000 in sight as traders consider Fed signals and cooling accumulation, Bitcoin\u2019s rise has reached a temporary roadblock.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_3330076f86362ad91c56f0700faff5ba\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After a steep post-ATH decline, Bitcoin is now consolidating around the mid-$110Ks; the tone was set by profit-taking into August 16.<\/li>\n<li>A $ 110,000 sweep remains on the table after a failed reclaim; on-chain data reveals a dense cost-basis cluster at approximately $116,963, which makes Bitcoin price predictions bearish in the short term.<\/li>\n<li>Glassnode\u2019s Accumulation Trend Score dropped from approximately 0.57 to 0.20, indicating a significant cooling of <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/coincentral.com\/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-why-fed-chair-drama-could-determine-next-major-move\/\" target=\"_blank\">accumulation<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>In addition to the active discussion about possible Powell replacements, markets reduced the likelihood of a September Fed cut, which is adding policy risk premia to Bitcoin (BTC).<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Current BTC price scenario<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">BTC 1d chart, Source: crypto.news<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Bitcoin price forecast is somewhat challenging in this scenario, as the market awaits today\u2019s FOMC decision and investors attempt to align their price expectations with the news.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Catalyst<\/h3>\n<p>A rainy start to this week began with an expected ~$3 billion in realized profits on Aug. 16, which precipitated a quick ~1.9% decline to ~$114,707 this week.\u00a0 The same window\u2019s crypto-news price coverage identified negative macro tone and profit-taking as drivers.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Support focus<\/h3>\n<p>The cost-basis distribution based on glassnodes reveals a significant cluster at ~$116,963 (about 3.6% of supply).\u00a0 The likelihood of a liquidity sweep toward approximately $110,000 before stronger bids appear increases if this band is not held or reclaimed.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Accumulation<\/h3>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/charts\/indicators.AccumulationTrendScore\" target=\"_blank\">Glassnode\u2019s Accumulation Trend Score<\/a> cooled from ~0.57 to ~0.20, implying weaker HODLer demand into the retreat (i.e., more redistribution than stacking at current prices).<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key signs Fed Chair uncertainty could drive BTC<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sign 1 \u2013 Profit-taking + reduced accumulation weaken support<\/h3>\n<p>Profit-taking and ETF outflows caused Bitcoin to slide into the $113\u2013$115K range, according to crypto.news, Bitcoin crypto price prediction; the on-chain read indicates cooler accumulation; these factors undermine short-term spot support.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sign 2 \u2013 September rate-cut odds fell<\/h3>\n<p>CME FedWatch probabilities also fluctuated, and polymarket pricing for a September cut recently dropped from about 80% to about 70%. The \u201cmacro tailwind\u201d narrative for Bitcoin is dulled by a lack of trust in short-term softening.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sign 3 \u2013 Trump weighing Powell replacements adds policy uncertainty<\/h3>\n<p>Multiple possible Powell successors and scenarios where a replacement is contemplated vs Powell remaining are discussed in recent reporting; these inconsistent signals increase policy uncertainty and risk premia for duration-sensitive assets like BTC.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Fed Chair\u2019s policy mean for BTC price prediction?<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Base scenario (choppy, cautious)<\/h3>\n<p>According to the latest chart outlook, Bitcoin is expected to range between $110,000 and $120,000, with $116,963 serving as the pivot, if cut odds remain low and Fed-chair speculation continues. As traders look for liquidity and fade breakouts, whipsaws are likely to form around this node.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish case (clarity + easing)<\/h3>\n<p>If $116,963 is regained and held, clear guidance for September\/November relaxing and less replacement chatter might rekindle flows and set up a retest of $120K\u2013$124K (previous ATH region).<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bearish\/liquidity grab<\/h3>\n<p>On-chain softness plus order-book gaps projection outlines a stop-run toward approximately $110,000 (or even $108K in a deeper flush) before new bids if cut odds continue to deteriorate and chair uncertainty increases.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary: How to read into the current price action of Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1755682327_265_Bitcoin-price-prediction-Market-braces-for-Fed-policy-shift-at.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin price prediction: Market braces for Fed policy shift at key support - 2\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bitcoin 1d chart, Source: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/tradingview.com\" target=\"_blank\">Tradingview<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Keep an eye on reclaims and acceptance over about $116,963 on volume; long-term acceptance supports upward probes.\u00a0 Rejected or unsuccessful reclaims leave $112K to $110,000 available.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Keep an eye on accumulation indicators (Glassnode\u2019s Accumulation Trend Score) for a reversal; if it rises above 0.20, it is favorable.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Keep an eye on Powell stories and cut-odds drift, which are the swing variables for risk appetite over the next two to four weeks.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cn-block-disclaimer\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-disclaimer__icon\">\n            <svg class=\"icon icon-info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><use xlink:href=\"#icon-info\"><\/use> <\/svg>        <\/div>\n<p class=\"cn-block-disclaimer__content\">\n            Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.        <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-disclaimer --><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With $110,000 in sight as traders consider Fed signals and cooling accumulation, Bitcoin\u2019s rise has reached a temporary roadblock. Summary After a steep post-ATH decline, Bitcoin is now consolidating around&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8315,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8314"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8316,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8314\/revisions\/8316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}