report<\/a> from Matrixport suggests that if seasonal trends continue and capital flows stay consistent, Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $120,000 this month. According to the report, realized price swings have now reached multi-year lows, indicating a significant decline in volatility. The market may be maturing as the one-week implied volatility is in the 30s, which is calm by Bitcoin\u2019s standards.<\/p>\nInstitutions are taking notice of this decreased volatility. When price movements are predictable, many large investors who were previously cautious due to risk controls are more likely to participate. <\/p>\n
Since April, almost $14 billion has poured into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which is about $4 billion more than the price action alone would imply. Matrixport analysts say this suggests strong long-term demand rather than short-term trading.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
However, not everything is working in Bitcoin\u2019s favor. Crypto market inflows are generally slowing down. Inflows are expected to be around $291 billion in 2025 at the current rate, which is significantly less than the $377 billion in 2024. With a multiplier effect of 2x to 2.5x for every dollar invested, it now takes more capital to push prices much higher than in past cycles.<\/p>\n
Wall Street is involved as well. Equities are still a common way for institutions to get exposure to the cryptocurrency market, and more than $100 billion in IPOs related to the cryptocurrency space are anticipated. With this kind of activity, Wall Street has a clear incentive to maintain the momentum, and may boost the market during slow periods.<\/p>\n
July has historically been a profitable month for Bitcoin. With an average return of roughly 9%, it has closed positive in seven of the previous ten years. In the upcoming weeks, Bitcoin may test the $116,000\u2013$120,000 range if that pattern holds true, especially with improved sentiment in equity markets and a more supportive Fed backdrop.<\/p>\n
But to break through that ceiling, a fresh surge of inflows might be required. Without fresh capital, particularly from retail or new institutions, the rally could fade into another round of sideways trading.<\/p>\n
<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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