{"id":36051,"date":"2026-07-31T20:39:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T20:39:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/clarity-act-odds-hit-25-as-trump-weighs-ethics-deal\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T20:39:31","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T20:39:31","slug":"clarity-act-odds-hit-25-as-trump-weighs-ethics-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/clarity-act-odds-hit-25-as-trump-weighs-ethics-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act odds hit 25% as Trump weighs ethics deal"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">CLARITY Act passage odds have fallen to 25% as the White House reviews a bipartisan ethics proposal that could determine whether the Senate takes up the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_66c7a5bd253022e632044854c3887f44\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Polymarket traders give the <strong>CLARITY Act a 25% chance<\/strong> of becoming law in 2026.<\/li>\n<li>Anthony Scaramucci expects <strong>President Donald Trump to approve<\/strong> the bipartisan ethics proposal.<\/li>\n<li>Sens. Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego reportedly submitted the <strong>compromise language to the White House<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Senate leaders have <strong>not confirmed the timing<\/strong> of any floor action.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scaramucci expects Trump to approve ethics deal<\/h2>\n<p>SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said he expects Trump to accept the revised ethics language negotiated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf POTUS ultimately signs off, which I think he will, who will stand in the way of Clarity?\u201d Scaramucci wrote on X. \u201cIf Dems (or GOPs in the pocket of bank lobby) stand in the way, they will regret it in November.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Sens. Tillis and Gallego have worked out a very strong bipartisan ethics provision. If POTUS ultimately signs off, which I think he will, who will stand in the way of Clarity? If Dems (or GOPs in the pocket of bank lobby) stand in the way, they will regret it  in November. <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HyIhKgoc1p\">https:\/\/t.co\/HyIhKgoc1p<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Scaramucci\/status\/2083218341473501381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 31, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Scaramucci\u2019s statement represents his assessment of the negotiations. Neither Trump nor the White House has publicly confirmed acceptance of the proposal.<\/p>\n<p>Tillis and Gallego reportedly sent the counterproposal to the White House on Thursday. The text has not been released publicly, but crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that it would give state attorneys general a role in enforcing restrictions on federal officials\u2019 digital-asset activities. <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EleanorTerrett\/status\/2082929391928307822?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Terrett\u2019s report<\/a> said the full scope of those state powers remained unclear.<\/p>\n<p>Scaramucci also claimed in a now-deleted post that Trump\u2019s children supported the compromise. That assertion has not been independently confirmed.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethics dispute remains central to CLARITY Act talks<\/h2>\n<p>Senate Democrats objected to an earlier Republican-backed ethics proposal because it reportedly placed enforcement authority solely with federal prosecutors.<\/p>\n<p>The disputed language would restrict the president, vice president and other federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office. Democrats have sought stronger enforcement mechanisms and broader protections addressing conflicts of interest linked to officials\u2019 crypto businesses.<\/p>\n<p>Giving state attorneys general enforcement authority could help attract Democratic votes. It could also address concerns raised by Tillis, who had withheld support without changes to the ethics section.<\/p>\n<p>However, an agreement on ethics would not guarantee passage. Senators remain divided over other provisions involving stablecoin rewards, protections for blockchain developers, and the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.<\/p>\n<p>The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act by a 294\u2013134 vote in July 2025, with 78 Democrats supporting it. Any amended Senate version would still need approval from both chambers before reaching Trump\u2019s desk.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CLARITY Act odds fall to record-low 25%<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket traders now assign a 25% probability that Trump will sign the CLARITY Act into law before the end of 2026, down from 30% earlier this week. The decline reflects uncertainty over both the remaining negotiations and the limited Senate calendar.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Polymarket<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Prediction-market probabilities represent traders\u2019 positions rather than a formal legislative forecast. The odds can change quickly if the White House accepts the ethics compromise or Senate Majority Leader John Thune schedules floor proceedings.<\/p>\n<p>Industry groups are also pressing lawmakers to act. Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, sent a letter to Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer requesting a vote before the recess. The company argued that continued regulatory uncertainty was driving US crypto investment and jobs overseas.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a similar call this week, saying the Senate needed to vote on the legislation \u201cnow.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Senate timetable remains uncertain<\/h2>\n<p>Sen. Cynthia Lummis said Thune has reserved space for the CLARITY Act on the Senate agenda and still intends to begin considering it before lawmakers leave Washington.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSenator Thune has kept a place for the Clarity Act on the agenda before the August recess for many, many weeks now,\u201d Lummis said. \u201cI believe he does intend to go through with it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Still, no floor schedule has been confirmed. Nominations, government funding negotiations and votes concerning Iran and Russia-Ukraine sanctions are competing for the Senate\u2019s remaining time. Lummis\u2019 comments indicate that proceedings could begin within days, but they do not guarantee a final passage vote before the recess. Crypto.news previously reported that amendments and procedural votes could push final action into the post-recess calendar.<\/p>\n<p>For US crypto companies and investors, the outcome will determine whether Congress advances a federal division of SEC and CFTC oversight this summer or leaves the regulatory framework unresolved heading into the November elections.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<div class=\"cnus-hub-promo\" style=\"margin:2rem 0;padding:1rem 1.25rem;border-left:4px solid #2563eb;background:#f0f5ff;border-radius:0 6px 6px 0;\"><strong>US Crypto Regulations<\/strong> : Read the full US Regulation Hub for the latest on SEC enforcement, IRS crypto tax rules, and pending legislation.<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CLARITY Act passage odds have fallen to 25% as the White House reviews a bipartisan ethics proposal that could determine whether the Senate takes up the crypto market structure bill&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36051"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36052,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36051\/revisions\/36052"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}