{"id":31051,"date":"2026-06-08T07:12:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T07:12:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/galaxy-cuts-clarity-act-odds-as-senate-clock-runs-out\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T07:12:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T07:12:45","slug":"galaxy-cuts-clarity-act-odds-as-senate-clock-runs-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/galaxy-cuts-clarity-act-odds-as-senate-clock-runs-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds as Senate clock runs out"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, warning that the Senate is running out of time to pass the crypto market structure bill.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_15bdb4075a54e52c9129b41465d25a7c\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Galaxy cut CLARITY Act odds to 60% as Senate floor time becomes harder to secure.<\/li>\n<li>Alex Thorn said July action is needed before the August recess closes the window.<\/li>\n<li>JPMorgan and Bitwise also flagged lower odds as ethics and finance talks remain unresolved.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>Alex Thorn, Galaxy\u2019s head of research, said the firm now sees a 60% chance of passage this year. Galaxy had raised its estimate to 75% in May after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today<\/p>\n<p>i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next\u2026 <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2EcxMb3Hwh\">pic.twitter.com\/2EcxMb3Hwh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/intangiblecoins\/status\/2062998896041758957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 5, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 60%<\/strong><\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"is-style-default\">\u201cOn May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%,\u201d Thorn said. \u201cWe are now lowering that estimate to 60%,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The change shows how quickly the bill\u2019s path has narrowed. Thorn said Senate leaders must move the bill before lawmakers leave for their August recess in late July.<\/p>\n<p>He said the window \u201ceffectively closes\u201d after that break because midterm election activity will make major legislation harder to pass.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Senate calendar becomes the main risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The CLARITY Act still needs Senate floor debate, an amendment process, and alignment between different Senate committee texts.<\/p>\n<p>Thorn said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor time in July for the process to fit before recess.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cAnything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,\u201d Thorn said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The bill also needs at least 60 Senate votes to avoid a long debate process. That means lawmakers must settle remaining disputes while keeping enough bipartisan support.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ethics and illicit finance talks remain open<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Galaxy said it would raise its odds again if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers settle the remaining policy issues.<\/p>\n<p>Thorn said ethics and illicit finance provisions remain key sticking points. These issues matter because they could affect support from senators who remain cautious about crypto rules.<\/p>\n<p>Senator Cynthia Lummis has continued pressing for a floor vote. She wrote that the bill had cleared committee and that \u201cthe floor is next.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SenLummis\/status\/2063768467145105813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 7, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Lummis also <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=nmwLEjy5DZM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">told<\/a> CNBC that lawmakers are working through ethics and illicit finance concerns before a possible vote.<\/p>\n<p>As previously reported by crypto.news, Galaxy had raised its CLARITY Act odds to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote.<\/p>\n<p>Separate crypto.news reporting noted that JPMorgan later warned the bill was running out of time. The bank placed the chance of passage this year at less than 50%.<\/p>\n<p>Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan also sounded more cautious. He said some Washington insiders put the odds between 5% and 30%.<\/p>\n<p>The CLARITY Act remains one of the crypto industry\u2019s main policy goals. Its path now depends on whether Senate leaders can find floor time, settle the open provisions, and send a revised bill back to the House before the election calendar takes over.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, warning that the Senate is running out of time to pass the crypto market structure bill.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28825,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31051"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31052,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31051\/revisions\/31052"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28825"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}