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Bitcoin has slipped below the 100,000-block mark to its next halving, putting the fifth reward cut on track for around mid-2028 at block 1,050,000 and setting up the first full halving cycle dominated by spot ETFs.<\/p>\n
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According to halving trackers like CoinGecko<\/a> and IG<\/a>, the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving is projected to occur when the blockchain hits block 1,050,000, cutting the block subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC and halving annualized issuance once again. With the network now past the 950,000-block area, data providers estimate roughly 100,000 blocks\u2014or just over 700 days at current block times\u2014remain until the event, implying an estimated date in April\u2013May 2028. That milestone will mark the midpoint of the 2024\u20132028 cycle, the first in which spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) play a central role in absorbing new supply.<\/p>\n Historically, halvings have driven Bitcoin\u2019s stock-to-flow ratio higher by cutting the pace of new coin creation, reducing structural sell pressure from miners, and\u2014at least in earlier cycles\u2014setting the stage for 12\u201318 month bull runs as supply shocks met rising demand. After the April 2024 halving, the block reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, pushing Bitcoin\u2019s annualized inflation rate below that of gold; the 2028 halving will cut new issuance again to 1.5625 BTC per block. But the context is radically different now that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold well over $100 billion in assets and have become a primary conduit for institutional and retail flows.<\/p>\n As research cited by Investing.com<\/a> notes, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows on strong days\u2014$167 million in a single session and $521 million across a recent week\u2014while global investment products tied to Bitcoin have logged billions in cumulative net demand. Earlier analysis from IG and others highlights that coins are increasingly locked in long-term wallets, corporate treasuries and ETFs, leaving exchange reserves at multi-year lows and thinning the actively traded supply. In that regime, some analysts argue the classic four-year \u201chalving cycle\u201d is effectively dead, replaced by an ETF liquidity cycle where large secondary market flows can overwhelm the marginal impact of issuance cuts, a view that\u2019s circulated widely in CoinMarketCap\u2019s halving-cycle commentary<\/a>.<\/p>\nHalving math versus ETF demand<\/h2>\n
ETF flows already changed the last halving<\/h2>\n