entered<\/a> bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, signaling what analysts describe as a potential transition away from bear-market behavior. The indicator is built on CryptoQuant\u2019s Profit and Loss Index, which aggregates the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios.<\/p>\nCryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote on X that the shift \u201coften suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.\u201d Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 when the indicator flipped, having rebounded roughly 35% from February\u2019s $60,000 lows.<\/p>\n
Why analysts are not calling a confirmed bull market yet<\/h2>\n
The last confirmed green reading came in March 2023 and held continuously until August 2024, covering a period during which Bitcoin climbed from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The March 2022 signal is the critical exception: the indicator briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin extended its downtrend well into 2023.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a predictive crystal ball. \u201cHistorically, it has been most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset,\u201d he said. Sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels are still required before the signal can be treated as validated.<\/p>\n
Moreno flagged several secondary metrics showing exhaustion in the current setup. Bitcoin must decisively break the $82,000 resistance level, which has rejected multiple rally attempts, before the signal can be considered confirmed by price action.<\/p>\n
What supporting data shows and what Hayes sees<\/h3>\n
Supporting the regime-shift thesis, April ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products reached $2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode\u2019s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin\u2019s history, with the only comparable prior readings occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.<\/p>\n
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argued separately that Bitcoin already found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and identified $90,000 as the threshold at which any rally would turn explosive toward the prior all-time high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin is \u201cpositioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,\u201d citing strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.<\/p>\n
<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
CryptoQuant signal has flipped Bitcoin into early bull territory for the first time since March 2023, analysts say. Summary CryptoQuant\u2019s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered bullish territory on May 12,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12092,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28380"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28381,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28380\/revisions\/28381"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}