<\/p>\n
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari has shifted from penciling in one or two 2026 cuts to a data\u2011dependent stance as the Iran war and higher oil muddy the inflation path.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
According to Jinshi\u2019s summary of recent remarks, Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari said that before the Iran conflict escalated, he believed inflation would likely decline enough to make \u201cone or two\u201d interest rate cuts appropriate later this year.<\/p>\n
That view is consistent with comments he made in early March, when he told\u00a0Reuters<\/a>\u00a0it was reasonable to expect a single 2026 cut as inflation pressures eased and the job market softened modestly.<\/a><\/p>\n However, he also emphasized in that interview that the Iran war is a \u201cnew shock\u201d for the global economy, saying the Fed now has to assess \u201cthe duration and magnitude\u201d of the conflict and its impact on energy prices before firming up any rate\u2011cut path.<\/a><\/p>\n Kashkari\u2019s more recent message has been that March\u2019s inflation and growth data, while not alarming, are not strong enough to warrant changing the Fed\u2019s policy statement or guidance.<\/p>\n In remarks reported by Jinshi, he said the changes seen in March were \u201cnot sufficient\u201d to revise the statement, a stance that aligns with his repeated insistence that officials need \u201cmore data\u201d before deciding whether to lean more toward fighting inflation or supporting the labor market.<\/p>\n In a January appearance covered by\u00a0CNBC<\/a>, Kashkari argued that policy was \u201cquite close to a neutral position\u201d and warned that inflation remained \u201cexcessively high,\u201d even as the economy proved more resilient than he had expected.<\/a><\/p>\n That has left him wary of promising aggressive easing, especially with President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff regime and the war\u2011driven spike in oil prices adding fresh uncertainty to the inflation outlook.<\/p>\n Kashkari has repeatedly highlighted energy costs as a key swing factor. At the same time, he has stressed in interviews reported by\u00a0Morningstar<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Reuters<\/a>\u00a0that the Fed must \u201cwatch both sides of our dual mandate,\u201d warning that if policymakers push rates too high for too long, they risk unnecessary damage to employment.<\/p>\n Before the latest geopolitical shock, Kashkari said he saw inflation running in the 2.5%\u20133% range and expected it to trend lower, but he has now adopted a more explicitly data\u2011dependent stance, saying the war has \u201cobscured\u201d the policy outlook and that it is \u201ctoo soon\u201d to know whether the Fed can safely deliver the cuts he once penciled in for 2026.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari has shifted from penciling in one or two 2026 cuts to a data\u2011dependent stance as the Iran war and higher oil muddy the inflation path.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27330"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27330\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27331,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27330\/revisions\/27331"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}March data \u201cnot enough\u201d to change the statement<\/h2>\n
Watching energy prices and the dual mandate<\/h2>\n
Speaking at a Bloomberg Invest event in New York, he said the central question now is how persistent higher oil prices will be and whether they materially slow progress toward the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target.<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n