<\/p>\n
Iran peace talks entered their most uncertain phase yet Monday as Vice President JD Vance prepared to lead a delegation to Islamabad alongside envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Axios reported, even as Iran\u2019s Foreign Ministry formally stated it has \u201cno plans\u201d for a second round and Tehran suspected the invitation was cover for a surprise US military strike before Wednesday\u2019s ceasefire expiry.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Iran peace talks are entering their most consequential 48 hours with the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday and no Iranian delegation publicly confirmed. The US delegation is traveling regardless. Pakistan has kept Islamabad under security lockdown in anticipation of a second round, with thousands of paramilitary and army personnel deployed through the Red Zone.<\/p>\n
The US team, the same configuration that led the failed first round on April 11 and 12, is led by Vance and includes Witkoff and Kushner. Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes had already landed at a Pakistani air base Sunday with security equipment and vehicles, signaling the delegation was committed to arriving whether or not Iran confirmed participation.<\/p>\n
Tehran has told intermediaries it believes the US announcement of talks is designed to build a \u201cblame game\u201d narrative: publicly committing to negotiations while preparing military strikes to coincide with the ceasefire expiry. The Sunday seizure of the Touska, arriving hours after Trump announced the Pakistan talks, reinforced that suspicion. Iran\u2019s Foreign Ministry described US statements about negotiations as \u201ca media game.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s chief negotiator Ghalibaf said in state television remarks Saturday that Iran\u2019s armed forces remain \u201cready\u201d even while pursuing diplomacy, framing the two tracks as simultaneous rather than alternative. The original ceasefire was announced hours before a midnight deadline during which Trump had threatened \u201ca whole civilization will die tonight.\u201d Iran\u2019s negotiating team arrived at the first round dressed in black, in mourning for those killed in the war. The level of institutional mistrust is not rhetorical.<\/p>\n
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Pakistan has framed this engagement as an ongoing \u201cIslamabad process\u201d rather than a single discrete round, giving itself diplomatic room to survive a second collapse without the entire framework breaking down. Prime Minister Sharif spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Sunday. Pakistan\u2019s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has served as the primary interlocutor between delegations throughout the conflict.<\/p>\n
Despite Iran\u2019s public rejection, Pakistani authorities completed Red Zone security preparations, suggesting Islamabad has reasons to believe Iran may still participate. An Iranian parliamentary official told Al Jazeera that Iran would \u201clikely\u201d send a team Monday or Tuesday, a gap between the Foreign Ministry\u2019s statement and the parliamentary official\u2019s remark that Pakistan is actively working to close.<\/p>\n
The next 48 hours will determine which scenario plays out for Bitcoin price markets. A ceasefire extension or genuine deal replicates the April 8 template: oil crashes and BTC surges, potentially toward $80,000. A confirmed collapse with resumed strikes tests the institutional demand floor below $70,000.<\/p>\n
The Iran nuclear sticking point remains the hardest to bridge: the US requires Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment, and Iran has said it will not surrender its 440-kilogram stockpile. A second round would need to find a formula, such as third-party custody of the stockpile, that neither side has publicly endorsed but that both have reportedly discussed through Pakistani intermediaries.<\/p>\n
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