report<\/a> published by Finestel and shared with crypto.news.<\/p>\nBitcoin opened February near $78,600, briefly pushing $79,300 before losing the critical $74,500 support and cascading to $60,000\u2013$62,000 in the February 5\u20138 window, the most volatile stretch since the \u201c1010 incident,\u201d with intraday swings topping 25%. From peak to trough, BTC shed roughly 12.8% month\u2011on\u2011month, its sixth straight weekly red close, even though it remains up strongly from about $41,000 in January 2025 and still 46% below its October 2025 all\u2011time high near $126,000. Ethereum tracked the move lower, dropping from around $2,550 to $1,800 before recovering to roughly $2,150 for a 15.7% monthly decline. Total crypto market capitalization shrank from about $2.95 trillion to a $2.41 trillion low, echoing early\u20112022 style stress as financing deals stalled and sentiment flipped to \u201cextreme panic.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
On\u2011chain data from Glassnode and other analytics firms shows this was historic capitulation rather than a shallow dip. Roughly 641,000 BTC moved at a loss during the crash, the second\u2011largest single\u2011day realized loss on record, with 77.5% of those exits coming from short\u2011term holders who bought between $75,000 and $97,000 and capitulated on the way down. That left a \u201cliquidity vacuum\u201d between $70,000 and $82,000 where few addresses now have cost basis, meaning any rebound into that band will run into heavy resistance from trapped buyers eager to exit. A thin but important support shelf emerged in the $63,000\u2013$64,000 zone, where U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs finally flipped to a net $787 million inflow in the final week, hinting at institutional dip\u2011buying even as retail de\u2011risked.<\/p>\n
Finestel remains locked-in to geopolitical tensions<\/h2>\n
Macro forces did the real damage. President Donald Trump\u2019s nomination of noted hawk Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair hardened expectations for tighter policy, higher real rates, and slower balance\u2011sheet support, a clear negative for liquidity\u2011sensitive assets like Bitcoin. At the same time, sticky inflation, stronger\u2011than\u2011expected labor data, and a 10% blanket U.S. import tariff signaled a more stagflationary, trade\u2011fractured backdrop. Yet Nvidia\u2019s February 25 earnings blew a hole in the gloom: the chipmaker posted record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year\u2011on\u2011year, reigniting the AI trade, lifting U.S. equities, and helping pull BTC back toward the $70,000 level on February 26.<\/p>\n
Against that backdrop, professional asset managers moved defensively rather than abandoning crypto altogether. Finestel\u2019s February allocation data shows BTC and ETH core holdings nudged up to about 53\u201353.5% of portfolios, framed as a \u201cflight to quality\u201d while leverage was cut to roughly 1.1\u20131.2x and value\u2011at\u2011risk tightened from about 7% to 6%. Stablecoin allocations climbed toward 25%, with velocity down 22%, a clear sign managers preferred to sit on dry powder instead of chasing every bounce, and DeFi\/RWA exposure was trimmed by about 1 percentage point even as some capital rotated into better\u2011collateralized real\u2011world asset plays. Derivatives data corroborated the caution: implied volatility jumped around 35% into the Nvidia and FOMC window, puts dominated roughly 65% of March expiries, futures open interest fell by about 22%, and more than $4.8 billion of mostly long positions were liquidated, pushing traders toward defined\u2011risk option structures and hedging rather than leveraged directional bets.<\/p>\n
Looking to March, the playbook remains macro\u2011driven: a March 18 FOMC meeting expected to hold rates near 3.5\u20133.75% but update the 2026 dot plot, fresh CPI\/PPI data on March 13, and ongoing tariff and geopolitical noise will determine whether $60,000 holds as a cyclical floor or gives way toward $55,000 on renewed earnings or geopolitical shocks. A dovish surprise from the Fed, better\u2011than\u2011feared growth data, and regulatory catalysts such as progress on U.S. tokenization rules could support a grind back toward $70,000\u2013$100,000 into quarter\u2011end, but for now, February\u2019s message is blunt: crypto is back under the thumb of rates, war, and real\u2011world cash\u2011flow narratives, and only those positioned with stable dry powder and strict risk controls were paid to survive the flush.<\/p>\n
<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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