surged<\/a> above $115 per barrel within minutes of the first Kharg Island strike reports on Tuesday, with Brent crude crossing $111. Gas prices in Los Angeles have already crossed $6 per gallon. The national average stands at $4.14, up from $2.98 the day before the war began on February 28.<\/p>\nThis is the price of a closed strait. The Hormuz chokepoint normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows. Since Iran imposed its de facto blockade, global supply has lost approximately 12 million barrels per day, more than the combined shortfalls of 1973 and 1979, according to IEA data. \u201cWhen you look at the 1973 and 1979 crises, in both of them we lost each about 5 million barrels per day. These oil crises led to global recession in many countries,\u201d IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Norges Bank Investment Management podcast. \u201cToday, we lost 12 million barrels per day \u2014 more than two of these oil crises put together.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Why April Will Be Worse Than March<\/h1>\n
Birol also warned specifically about the month ahead. March was partially buffered by cargo ships that had entered the strait before the war began and were still arriving at port. \u201cIn April, there is nothing,\u201d he said in the same interview. The full impact of the supply disruption is only now reaching energy markets in real terms.<\/p>\n
His conclusion to Le Figaro was unambiguous: the current crisis is \u201cmore serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together\u201d \u2014 combining the oil shocks of both 1970s energy crises with the gas market dislocation that followed Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n
How This Reaches Bitcoin<\/h2>\n
The mechanism is not subtle. As crypto.news reported, the Federal Reserve has no room to cut rates while oil is pricing in a prolonged supply shock. The market currently prices in minimal near-term Fed movement. Bitcoin performs best in easing liquidity conditions \u2014 rate cuts, falling dollar, growing money supply. It performs worst in exactly the conditions the Iran war has created: oil-driven inflation, a Fed on hold, and investors rotating into traditional safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n
As crypto.news noted, $65,000 has been identified as Bitcoin\u2019s key near-term support. A sustained oil price above $115 keeps the macro headwind in place and leaves BTC vulnerable to a break below that level if tonight\u2019s escalation materializes.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe single most important solution to this problem is opening up the Hormuz Strait,\u201d Birol said. Until that happens, crypto investors are effectively long on diplomacy whether they intend to be or not.<\/p>\n
<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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