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Research and brokerage firm Bernstein, which manages approximately $867 billion in assets, declared on March 24 that\u00a0Bitcoin\u2019s\u00a0(BTC) price bottom is likely in and maintained its end-of-2026 price target of $150,000 \u2014 implying more than a 100% gain from current levels \u2014 as the firm\u2019s analysts argued the ongoing selloff is categorically different from every bear market Bitcoin has previously endured.<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described<\/a> the current pullback as \u201cthe weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,\u201d pointing to what the firm sees as a temporary crisis of investor confidence rather than any deterioration in Bitcoin\u2019s underlying fundamentals. With\u00a0BTC\u00a0trading around $70,668 at time of writing \u2014 down roughly 40% from its peak \u2014 Bernstein\u2019s conviction remains intact.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The framing is a deliberate break from how past bear markets have been characterized. Previous Bitcoin cycles saw far more violent collapses: the 2013 peak near $1,150 was followed by an 84% drawdown, the 2017 high of $20,000 preceded a 77% decline, and the 2021 peak near $69,000 gave way to a roughly 70% correction. By comparison, the current drawdown of around 40% looks restrained \u2014 and Bernstein argues it is, structurally speaking, far less dangerous.<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n The key differentiators, according to the firm, are the maturation of institutional flows and a more favorable policy environment. Spot Bitcoin ETF adoption continues to expand, corporate treasury participation is accelerating, and the U.S. political backdrop has shifted in a direction broadly viewed as supportive of digital assets. None of the systemic failures that defined 2022 \u2014 collapsed exchanges, insolvent lenders, contagion \u2014 are present in the current cycle.<\/p>\n Strategy\u2019s continued accumulation at depressed prices is cited as a key supporting data point. The company now holds approximately 3.6% of Bitcoin\u2019s total circulating supply, valued at around $53.5 billion, and has raised $7.3 billion in 2026 specifically to expand its Bitcoin treasury. Bernstein views Strategy as a high-beta vehicle with a structurally resilient balance sheet, noting that only an extreme scenario \u2014 BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years \u2014 would require any balance sheet restructuring.<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n On-chain data adds further context. Analyst Ali Charts pointed to Bitcoin approaching the 0.8 MVRV ratio band, a level situated between $56,000 and $60,000 that has historically served as a launchpad for major rallies: +963% in 2017, +261% in 2018, +1,126% in 2020, and +660% following the FTX collapse in 2022. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan echoed the sentiment, arguing that reduced participation and fading retail interest are \u201ctextbook bear market\u201d indicators \u2014 but historically, accumulation phases rather than exit points. \u201cA bear market is not a time to give up. It is the time to prepare for the next bull cycle,\u201d he wrote on X.<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n Not everyone shares Bernstein\u2019s confidence. VanEck CEO Jan VanEck\u00a0told CNBC in early March\u00a0that while a bottom may be forming, 2026 represents Bitcoin\u2019s typical fourth-year bear cycle, consistent with historical halving patterns. Some traders argue that failure to reclaim and hold above $70,000 could open the door to a deeper leg lower, potentially retesting the $60,000 level that has emerged as the most closely watched structural support.\u200b<\/p>\n Bernstein\u2019s $150,000 target, first established when Bitcoin was trading at significantly higher levels, aligns with a broader cluster of institutional\u00a02026 price forecasts\u00a0that include $150,000 from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and $180,000 from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Longer term, Bernstein maintains a target of $1 million by 2033.<\/p>\n <\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Summary Research firm Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely found a cycle bottom and is reiterated its $150,000 year-end price target, describing the current drawdown as the \u201cweakest bear case\u201d in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24355"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24356,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24355\/revisions\/24356"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}A Different Kind of Drawdown<\/h2>\n
Strategy and On-Chain Signals<\/h2>\n
Where Analysts Diverge<\/h2>\n