{"id":22557,"date":"2026-02-23T09:50:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T09:50:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-risks-2018-style-crash-if-200-week-ema-breaks-warns-analyst\/"},"modified":"2026-02-23T09:51:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T09:51:19","slug":"bitcoin-risks-2018-style-crash-if-200-week-ema-breaks-warns-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-risks-2018-style-crash-if-200-week-ema-breaks-warns-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin risks 2018-style crash if 200-week EMA breaks, warns analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Bitcoin trades near 200-week EMA; loss of support could spark 30\u201360% capitulation.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_a66f2c4fec259294ca6b930baef8d463\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin trades around $68.4k, above the ~$68.3k 200-week EMA that marks the key cycle support line.<\/li>\n<li>In 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA followed by a failed retest turned it into resistance and led to sharp selloffs.<\/li>\n<li>Analyst Rekt Capital says multiple weekly closes above the EMA keep downside \u201cunconfirmed,\u201d but a breakdown from this level could again trigger accelerated capitulation.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>A cryptocurrency analyst has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant price decline similar to events in 2018 and 2022 if the digital asset fails to maintain a critical technical support level.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">#BTC<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>History suggests Macro Triangle Breakdowns across cycles haven&#8217;t been too kind to Bitcoin&#8217;s price action<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">$BTC<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">#Crypto<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">#Bitcoin<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6yokKtknmG\">https:\/\/t.co\/6yokKtknmG<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/naZ5aFCTCJ\">pic.twitter.com\/naZ5aFCTCJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rektcapital\/status\/2024520016486395981?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">February 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The analyst, known by the pseudonym Rekt Capital, told 563,100 followers on social media platform X that Bitcoin faces potential downside risk if it loses support at the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), according to statements posted on the platform.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<p>Historical data shows that a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, followed by a post-breakdown retest of the EMA into new resistance, has triggered bearish acceleration in previous market cycles, the analyst stated.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe 200-week EMA represents the key level,\u201d Rekt Capital wrote, adding that a weekly close below it followed by a bearish retest would likely position Bitcoin for additional downside over time.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst noted that Bitcoin has posted weekly closes above the 200-week EMA for two consecutive weeks, which has prevented bearish confirmation in the near term. However, the analyst cautioned that Bitcoin remains vulnerable without sustained upward momentum.<\/p>\n<p>According to the analysis, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin may struggle to generate significant upward price movement from the 200-week EMA level before an eventual breakdown occurs.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst stated that a convincing breakout above the 200-week EMA resistance level would be necessary to invalidate the likelihood of a price collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin experienced major capitulation events in both 2018 and 2022, when the cryptocurrency lost significant value following extended bear markets.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin trades near 200-week EMA; loss of support could spark 30\u201360% capitulation. Summary Bitcoin trades around $68.4k, above the ~$68.3k 200-week EMA that marks the key cycle support line. In&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22557"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22557\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22558,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22557\/revisions\/22558"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}