{"id":22228,"date":"2026-02-17T20:02:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T20:02:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/history-says-365-days-to-bottom-but-this-bitcoin-cycle-may-be-different\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T20:03:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T20:03:21","slug":"history-says-365-days-to-bottom-but-this-bitcoin-cycle-may-be-different","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/history-says-365-days-to-bottom-but-this-bitcoin-cycle-may-be-different\/","title":{"rendered":"History says 365 days to bottom \u2014 but this Bitcoin cycle may be different"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Bitcoin slid more than 2% to $67,000 on Tuesday, reflecting broader risk aversion across markets as Wall Street reopened after the Presidents\u2019 Day holiday.<\/p>\n

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\n Summary<\/span>\n <\/div>\n
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  • Tech and crypto remain under pressure, while defensives are mixed, with selective strength emerging in activist-driven and travel names.<\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin has fallen about 29% over the past month, sparking debate over whether the downturn is nearing a bottom or has further to run.<\/li>\n
  • \u201cI believe that bitcoin has already capitulated with that big move from 100k-> 60k,\u201d one analyst says.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    <\/p>\n

    Crypto weakness coincided with renewed pressure on technology and software shares, where investors continued to grapple with the potential for AI-driven disruption. The Nasdaq-100 underperformed, slipping 0.3%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped more than 2.7% in midday New York trading. The software-focused fund has now declined in 11 of the past 15 sessions, pushing its year-to-date losses to nearly 25%.<\/p>\n

    Broader equity indices were largely flat, masking sharp divergences beneath the surface. Financial stocks rebounded after weeks of weakness, while consumer staples lagged.<\/p>\n

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    Travel Tickers<\/h2>\n

    Travel-linked shares stood out as a pocket of strength. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings surged 11% after Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake exceeding 10% and signaled plans to push for strategic changes following the cruise operator\u2019s prolonged underperformance.<\/p>\n

    Peers rallied in sympathy, with Carnival Corp. rising about 4% and Royal Caribbean Group gaining 3%.<\/p>\n

    In travel and leisure, Airbnb Inc. added 3.7%, extending momentum from last week\u2019s earnings report. Southwest Airlines Co. jumped more than 6% following a wave of analyst upgrades from Susquehanna and UBS.<\/p>\n

    But what about Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n

    The top cryptocurrency has fallen about 29% over the past month, sparking debate over whether the downturn is nearing a bottom or has further to run.<\/p>\n

    Trader Altcoin Sherpa pointed to past cycles for comparison, noting that both the 2017\u20132018 and 2021\u20132022 bear markets saw steep 75\u201385% drawdowns and took roughly a year from all-time high to final bottom. Each cycle ended with a sharp capitulation event \u2014 including the 2018 plunge from $6,000 to $3,000 and the 2022 crash tied to FTX \u2014 followed by several months of accumulation.<\/p>\n

    However, Sherpa argues the current cycle may differ. The 2024\u20132025 rally was slower and more consolidation-heavy than prior vertical surges, and structural factors such as spot ETFs, reduced speculative excess, stronger support in the $50,000\u2013$70,000 range, and already-flushed altcoin froth could shorten the bear market timeline, potentially avoiding a full 365-day decline.<\/p>\n

    \u201cI believe that bitcoin has already capitulated with that big move from 100k-> 60k,\u201d Sherpa says. \u201cI believe we are now in the ACCUMULATION phase of the cycle. Accumulation can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months.\u201d <\/p>\n

    See the full post via the link below.<\/p>\n

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    https:\/\/t.co\/fvpURWvzbB<\/a><\/p>\n

    \u2014 Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) February 16, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

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