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Political betting markets are flashing red for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, with traders now making her the odds-on favorite to be the first Trump cabinet member shown the door\u2014an abrupt reversal driven by backlash over her attempts to defend the fatal shootings of both Alex Pretti and Ren\u00e9e Good in Minnesota.<\/p>\n
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On Polymarket and Kalshi\u2014two online \u201cprediction markets\u201d where users buy and sell contracts tied to real-world political outcomes\u2014Noem has surged<\/a> to the top of the board for the question, \u201cWho will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?<\/a>\u201d<\/em> After sitting at just a 12% probability on Jan. 21, her implied odds jumped to 43% on Kalshi and 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday morning.<\/p>\n Prediction markets like Polymarket (crypto-based and settled on blockchains) and Kalshi (a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC) allow traders to wager on events such as elections, court rulings, or cabinet shakeups. Prices move in real time based on buying and selling pressure, effectively crowdsourcing a probability for how likely an outcome is to occur.<\/p>\n Noem\u2019s rise put her well ahead of Attorney General Pam Bondi\u2014who has faced bipartisan criticism over her handling of the Epstein files\u2014and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who has reportedly been accused of taking staff to a strip club<\/a> during an official work trip.<\/p>\n But Noem bears the brunt of scrutiny due to her early statements about Pretti and Good. Noem, without investigating, claimed that both Pretti and Good were \u201cattacking\u201d U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employees \u2014 narratives supported by no evidence and repeatedly challenged by bystander video and eyewitness accounts.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n While Democrats remain split on whether Noem\u2019s exit would meaningfully change Trump administration immigration policy, Republicans have, for the first time, publicly broken ranks<\/a> with President Trump over her leadership.<\/p>\n Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who voted to confirm Noem, says:<\/p>\n \u201cShe should be out of a job.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who also voted to confirm Noem, chimed in as well:<\/p>\n \u201cI would not support her again, and I think it probably is time for her to step down.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Some Democrats cautioned that Noem\u2019s departure alone wouldn\u2019t fix deeper issues at DHS. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who also voted for Noem, added:<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t want a DHS Secretary Stephen Miller.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n There\u2019s another market that has a 32% chance that Noem will be out by March 31<\/a> and a 24% chance she\u2019ll be impeached<\/a> by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n <\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Political betting markets are flashing red for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, with traders now making her the odds-on favorite to be the first Trump cabinet member shown the door\u2014an…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20843"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20844,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20843\/revisions\/20844"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Why it matters<\/h2>\n
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