{"id":18404,"date":"2025-12-20T14:37:01","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T14:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/arthur-hayes-says-feds-rmp-is-qe-in-disguise-sees-bitcoin-reclaiming-124k\/"},"modified":"2025-12-20T14:37:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T14:37:20","slug":"arthur-hayes-says-feds-rmp-is-qe-in-disguise-sees-bitcoin-reclaiming-124k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/arthur-hayes-says-feds-rmp-is-qe-in-disguise-sees-bitcoin-reclaiming-124k\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes says Fed\u2019s RMP is \u2018QE in disguise,\u2019 sees Bitcoin reclaiming $124K"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes called the Federal Reserve\u2019s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program \u201cQE in disguise,\u201d predicting renewed liquidity will drive Bitcoin higher.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_1b583df98234cbced8e75d6ac2dd25a7\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Arthur Hayes says the Fed\u2019s RMP program functions like quantitative easing.<\/li>\n<li>He expects Bitcoin to trade between $80K\u2013$100K before breaking above $124K.<\/li>\n<li>Hayes predicts renewed liquidity could push Bitcoin toward $200K in 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>The Maelstrom Fund CIO expects Bitcoin (BTC) to trade between $80,000 and $100,000 near-term before reclaiming $124,000 and potentially targeting $200,000.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes published his analysis in a December 19 <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptohayes.substack.com\/p\/love-language\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">essay<\/a> titled \u201cLove Language,\u201d arguing that RMP functions identically to quantitative easing through indirect mechanisms.<\/p>\n<p>He announced a portfolio shift from Ethereum into high-quality DeFi assets that he believes can outperform as fiat liquidity improves.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We are rotating out of <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">$ETH<\/a> and into high-quality DeFi names, which we believe can outperform as fiat liquidity improves.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/2002175785055236216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">December 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">RMP operates through money market fund channel<\/h2>\n<p>The Fed introduced RMP at the December 10 FOMC meeting. Hayes\u2019 accounting analysis shows the program purchases short-term Treasury bills from money market funds, which then redeploy proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or repo markets.<\/p>\n<p>This structure indirectly finances government spending without the political costs of formally announcing quantitative easing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile RMP purchases are technically smaller in absolute magnitude than past QE programs ($40 billion monthly), the structural mechanism creates equivalent monetary expansion,\u201d Hayes wrote.<\/p>\n<p>The program becomes more powerful through government reliance on T-bill financing to fund deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes emphasized that New York Fed President John Williams has discretionary control over RMP expansion through vague \u201cample reserves\u201d guidance.<\/p>\n<p>This structure enables unlimited balance sheet expansion with minimal oversight, which Hayes colorfully termed \u201cMoney Printer Go F***** Brrrrr.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Multi-phase Bitcoin price trajectory through 2026<\/h2>\n<p>Hayes forecasts choppy trading between $80,000 and $100,000 from December 2025 through January 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Two factors drive this range: persistent belief that RMP differs from quantitative easing and uncertainty about whether the program continues beyond its April 2026 scheduled end.<\/p>\n<p>Once markets recognize RMP\u2019s true quantitative easing nature, Hayes expects quick acceleration.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin would quickly retake $124,000 and move toward $200,000 in early-to-mid 2026. This leg would be driven by institutional FOMO, ETF inflows, and recognition that the Fed is underwriting government spending.<\/p>\n<p>March 2026 represents \u201cpeak expectations\u201d for RMP\u2019s asset price inflation capability. Hayes anticipates Bitcoin will decline and form a local bottom \u201cwell above $124,000.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The pullback would be temporary and strategic rather than a cycle top. Hayes expanded his long-term forecast to $500,000 by year-end 2026 in late November comments.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes called the Federal Reserve\u2019s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program \u201cQE in disguise,\u201d predicting renewed liquidity will drive Bitcoin higher. Summary Arthur Hayes says the Fed\u2019s RMP&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18404"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18404\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18405,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18404\/revisions\/18405"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}