{"id":17973,"date":"2025-12-15T11:10:55","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T11:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-prediction-bulls-bet-on-60-rebound-as-etf-cost-basis-cycle-resets-again\/"},"modified":"2025-12-15T11:11:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T11:11:16","slug":"bitcoin-price-prediction-bulls-bet-on-60-rebound-as-etf-cost-basis-cycle-resets-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-prediction-bulls-bet-on-60-rebound-as-etf-cost-basis-cycle-resets-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin price prediction bulls bet on 60%+ rebound as ETF cost-basis cycle resets again"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p>Bitcoin price prediction as new ETF-driven cost-basis cycle points to another 60%+ rally in 180 days, but fading ETF inflows, Fed risk, and Strategy\u2019s shrinking safety margin could still break support.\u200b<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_3908f4107c3a12926f81980994b0c432\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin price prediction has shifted from four-year halving cycles to a \u201ccost\u2011basis returns cycle,\u201d with three post\u2011ETF patterns where BTC breaks ATHs, dumps to ETF cost basis, then rallies 60%+ within ~180 days.\u200b<\/li>\n<li>The latest reset comes as spot ETF inflows fade, the Fed signals only limited cuts, and analysts warn that a BoJ hike plus thin liquidity could still send BTC toward prior support near $80k or even $75k.\u200b<\/li>\n<li>Strategy now holds over 3% of BTC supply via debt\u2011funded buys, but rising average entry price and a compressed \u201cmargin of safety\u201d mean a sharp drawdown or mNAV drop below 1 could force selling into weakness.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin price prediction say value of cryptocurrency could rebound to significantly higher levels within the next 180 days, which suggests the cryptocurrency\u2019s traditional four-year cycles have been replaced by a new pattern.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past day BTCUSDT has traded between roughly $87.6k and $90.3k, with price currently just under $90k, implying an intraday move of around 3% peak\u2011to\u2011trough and a net gain of about 1\u20132%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><\/figure>\n<p>The arrival of exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin\u2019s spot price has altered the digital asset\u2019s behavior, creating what Copper terms the \u201ccost-basis returns cycle,\u201d the firm stated in its analysis.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin price prediction has analysts on the fence<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cAcross 2024\/2025, Bitcoin has exhibited the same repeatable pattern: price breaks to new all-time highs, corrects sharply, and then finds support almost perfectly at its ETF investor cost basis before beginning the next expansion,\u201d according to Copper\u2019s report.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why a Quiet Bitcoin Market Can Be Dangerous: What IFP Is Signaling Now<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, periods when IFP turned red were not defined by orderly trends but by sharp corrections and sudden price swings.\u201d \u2013 By <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/xwinfinance?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">@xwinfinance<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cseSyoqdr4\">pic.twitter.com\/cseSyoqdr4<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2000484296021127341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">December 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The company\u2019s analysis indicates this pattern has occurred three times since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, with each cycle delivering returns exceeding 60 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Some attribute the sharp corrections to institutional investors rebalancing their portfolios once Bitcoin enters price discovery mode, an activity that \u201ctransforms Bitcoin\u2019s volatility into realized returns,\u201d according to the firm.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstitutions are not \u2018staking sats\u2019 \u2014 in fact, most do not care about sats at all now that Bitcoin is accessible through equities-style ETF shares. They care about risk-adjusted contribution to a portfolio,\u201d the analysis stated.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">$BTC<\/a> reacted to the key level at $87,771, where new buyers stepped in and pushed price back into the rising wedge pattern.<br \/>Ideally, price should hold support above the last swing low to maintain upside momentum. A break below this level would make $83,921 the next key level to\u2026 <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Zm6tC6TX1U\">pic.twitter.com\/Zm6tC6TX1U<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Man of Bitcoin (@Manofbitcoin) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Manofbitcoin\/status\/2000487113733574760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">December 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Financial advisors generally recommend institutions allocate between 2 percent and 5 percent to Bitcoin. Without rebalancing, a 2 percent Bitcoin allocation can drift to 6.2 percent in less than 180 days during these cycles, while a 5 percent allocation approaches double digits, according to Copper.<\/p>\n<p>Fadi Aboualfa, Copper\u2019s head of research, told Cryptonews that Bitcoin is trading near its ETF investor cost basis and the pattern points to a significant move higher in the next 180 days. If cost basis rises as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a much higher target range, he stated.<\/p>\n<p>Other analysts have noted few catalysts currently exist to drive Bitcoin forward. The Federal Reserve\u2019s recent 0.25 percentage point interest rate reduction was largely priced into markets, with policymakers indicating there may be only one cut in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Data from SoSoValue shows inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street have declined substantially in December and have not compensated for high outflows in November.<\/p>\n<p>Products from BlackRock and Fidelity now hold a significant share of Bitcoin\u2019s total market capitalization, meaning sustained outflows could pressure the digital asset\u2019s valuation, according to market observers.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<p>Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has accumulated 660,625 bitcoins, representing over 3 percent of bitcoin\u2019s total supply. These acquisitions have been largely funded by debt, with the company stating it may be forced to sell if its mNAV, which compares Strategy\u2019s market value to its bitcoin holdings, falls below 1.<\/p>\n<p>Strategy\u2019s continued Bitcoin purchases throughout the bull run have increased the average price paid per coin over the past year, reducing its buffer in the event of a bear market, according to the company\u2019s disclosures.<\/p>\n<p>Amberdata research indicates \u201cthe margin of safety has compressed to levels not seen since early 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe early money is patient. Deep profits create holders who can weather drawdowns without stress. The late money is nervous. They have investment committees asking questions and redemption pressure from clients who bought near prior peak prices,\u201d according to Amberdata\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Amberdata stated that a decline below certain support levels could prove consequential and alter investor psychology while generating negative headlines.<\/p>\n<p>Depending on the reference date, 2025 YTD return for BTC is roughly +30\u201335%, which looks strong in absolute terms but modest compared with the parabolic leg earlier in the cycle. Several analyses note that BTC has underperformed some traditional assets at points in 2025 (e.g., gold and equities in certain windows), highlighting a maturation in risk\u2011adjusted returns rather than pure speculative blow\u2011off.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1765797055_892_Bitcoin-price-prediction-bulls-bet-on-60-rebound-as-ETF\" alt=\"Bitcoin price prediction bulls bet on 60%+ rebound as ETF cost-basis cycle resets again - 2\"><\/figure>\n<p>From a trading perspective, the last 24 hours look like classic range action within a broader consolidation after a strong YTD uptrend: liquidity is decent, intraday volatility is tradable but not extreme, and structurally the market is balancing between defended 80k support and the psychological 100k magnet.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin price prediction as new ETF-driven cost-basis cycle points to another 60%+ rally in 180 days, but fading ETF inflows, Fed risk, and Strategy\u2019s shrinking safety margin could still break&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17973"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17973\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17974,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17973\/revisions\/17974"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}