{"id":17349,"date":"2025-12-05T11:51:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T11:51:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoins-four-year-myth-meets-its-real-master-liquidity\/"},"modified":"2025-12-05T11:51:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T11:51:34","slug":"bitcoins-four-year-myth-meets-its-real-master-liquidity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoins-four-year-myth-meets-its-real-master-liquidity\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s four year myth meets its real master: liquidity"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Ran Neuner argues bitcoin\u2019s real market cycle is driven by global liquidity and PMI, not the four year halving myth traders still cling to.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_96d67f2ec2037916437a4e71622a45df\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>YouTuber Ran Neuner says the four year bitcoin halving cycle was a comforting but misleading myth built on just three data points.\u200b<\/li>\n<li>He shows past bitcoin booms and busts tracked global liquidity, central bank balance sheets and PMI, not the halving calendar.\u200b<\/li>\n<li>With tightening ending and liquidity set to expand, he warns retail selling now will hand cheap coins to institutions.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s familiar four year rhythm is not broken, Ran Neuner argues, it was never the real metronome of the market in the first place. In a brisk 17 minute episode of Crypto Insider, the host dismantles the industry\u2019s favorite calendar myth and replaces it with a colder master variable: global liquidity.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The 4-Year Crypto Cycle Was A HUGE Lie! \" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/eP0w-2Cs8Ao?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"halving-as-comforting-illusion\">Halving as comforting illusion<\/h2>\n<p>Neuner opens with a warning that \u201cif you\u2019re about to sell your crypto because you think the recent cycle just ended, you\u2019re about to become the dumb money for the institutions.\u201d He concedes that in the last three halving cycles \u201cBitcoin did top round about now\u201d in the post halving year, with familiar 80 percent drawdowns that conditioned traders to expect a time based bear market on cue. The halving schedule, he says, gave analysts \u201cthree full cycles of data\u201d and a comforting story that \u201cmade the market feel predictable,\u201d but \u201canyone that knows anything about statistics will tell you that three batches of data isn\u2019t a significant sample size.\u201d<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eP0w-2Cs8Ao\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<p>Instead of accepting the pattern at face value, Neuner says he pulled macro, liquidity, equity and political data into \u201cone chart, one model\u201d and found that the halving \u201cdefinitely played a part, but it was a small factor.\u201d \u201cThe real increase in the Bitcoin (BTC) price wasn\u2019t driven by the halving,\u201d he insists, \u201cit was driven by something much, much bigger\u201d that appeared across all three prior cycles and has not yet appeared in this one.<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eP0w-2Cs8Ao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"liquidity-as-real-cycle-driver\">Liquidity as real cycle driver<\/h2>\n<p>That bigger force is quantitative easing and the broader expansion of global money supply. Revisiting earlier bull markets, Neuner reminds viewers that after the first halving in late 2012 Bitcoin\u2019s move from 10 dollars to 1,250 dollars coincided with the Federal Reserve injecting \u201c$85 billion worth of liquidity into the market every month,\u201d eventually adding over $1 trillion to its balance sheet. When the Fed began slowing and then ending QE, Bitcoin slid from about $1,000 to $150, a drawdown that \u201clines up perfectly with the halving cycle\u201d but was in his telling actually driven by liquidity withdrawal.<\/p>\n<p>He traces the same pattern through 2017, when Bitcoin\u2019s run from roughly $1,000 to $20,000 came as the European Central Bank ran one of its largest bond buying programs, the Bank of Japan \u201cwas buying bonds and ETFs at an unprecedented rate,\u201d and China unleashed \u201cthe biggest credit impulse in history.\u201d The Covid era rally from $4,000 to $69,000 likewise followed what he calls \u201cthe biggest global liquidity injection in the history of finance,\u201d with the Fed expanding its balance sheet by more than $5 trillion while other major central banks followed suit.<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eP0w-2Cs8Ao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"pmi-institutions-and-the-real-clock\">PMI, institutions and the \u201creal\u201d clock<\/h2>\n<p>To give the argument a measurable anchor, Neuner turns to the global Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index, which he describes as \u201cthe key metric that tracks\u201d whether the economy is expanding or contracting. He notes that when PMI bottoms and then breaks above 50, \u201cthat\u2019s when the liquidity starts returning\u201d and Bitcoin historically finds a floor, while readings above 55 have marked the start of the \u201creal bull runs\u201d and levels around 60 have coincided with what he calls the \u201caltcoin super cycle.\u201d In both the 2017 and 2020 cycles, he says, the PMI pushed through those thresholds at the same time that central banks were expanding their balance sheets and crypto markets were going vertical.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis time the Fed cycle and the PMI didn\u2019t line up with a halving,\u201d Neuner argues, pointing out that for the past two years the Fed has been draining liquidity through quantitative tightening and PMI has been flat to slightly down. That, he says, explains why \u201cit should have been a bull market, but it wasn\u2019t,\u201d and why Bitcoin now trades below where it started the year despite the narrative tailwind of another halving. \u201cThe halving clock and the liquidity clock were correlated for three cycles, but this cycle they decoupled,\u201d he says, leaving traders anchored to a calendar that no longer reflects underlying conditions.<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eP0w-2Cs8Ao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"a-warning-to-retail-sellers\">A warning to retail sellers<\/h2>\n<p>Neuner\u2019s conclusion is blunt: \u201cWe have never entered a bear market in a period where liquidity is expanding. Never, not once in history.\u201d With the Federal Reserve signaling an end to tightening, lower rates ahead and an eventual shift back to QE, he expects the PMI to \u201cstart to fly\u201d and institutional algorithms to flip firmly into \u201crisk on\u201d mode. \u201cDo you think Larry Fink has a rainbow chart on his wall?\u201d he asks. \u201cDo you think Larry Fink cares about the four year cycle? He doesn\u2019t. But I guarantee you he\u2019s watching liquidity. I guarantee you he\u2019s watching the Fed balance sheet\u2026 and the PMI.\u201d<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eP0w-2Cs8Ao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<p>Framing the current pullback as a trap, he tells viewers that if they sell now out of fear of a \u201cfour year cycle ghost,\u201d they will be \u201cselling your coins literally at the bottom\u201d to institutional buyers just before the liquidity cycle starts in earnest. \u201cThe four year cycle was a lie,\u201d Neuner says in his closing remarks. \u201cThis cycle isn\u2019t over. In fact, if anything, this cycle hasn\u2019t even begun.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ran Neuner argues bitcoin\u2019s real market cycle is driven by global liquidity and PMI, not the four year halving myth traders still cling to. Summary YouTuber Ran Neuner says the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15714,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17349"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17349\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17350,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17349\/revisions\/17350"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}