{"id":17291,"date":"2025-12-04T20:33:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T20:33:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-bulls-face-make-or-break-test-at-98k-100k-trader-mayne\/"},"modified":"2025-12-04T20:33:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T20:33:10","slug":"bitcoin-bulls-face-make-or-break-test-at-98k-100k-trader-mayne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/bitcoin-bulls-face-make-or-break-test-at-98k-100k-trader-mayne\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin bulls face make-or-break test at $98k\u2013$100k: Trader Mayne"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Bitcoin is pressing up against one of its most consequential resistance zones of the cycle, and popular crypto analyst Trader Mayne says the next few days will determine whether bulls reclaim momentum\u2014or watch the rally stall into a lower high.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_fa22b8f3170a9995ecc8d38f19405f61\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin\u2019s ability to clear the heavy confluence zone at $98K\u2013$100K will dictate whether the market stages a final leg higher into year-end or slips back into a broader downtrend. <\/li>\n<li>\u201cThis remains the critical area for me,\u201d Trader Mayne says.<\/li>\n<li>A clean break of the $98K\u2013$100K band could flip those odds\u2014and potentially ignite the last major rally of the cycle.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has climbed back to its yearly open level after what Trader Mayne described as \u201ca nice couple of trade opportunities\u201d following the formation of an $80,000 cycle low. The move has broken an \u201caggressive downtrend,\u201d but the analyst emphasized that the real test still lies ahead: a daily downtrend line intersecting with the former price floor around $98,000.<\/p>\n<p>The zone aligns with the series of lower highs defining Bitcoin\u2019s macro downtrend. Clearing it would mark the first meaningful shift in high-time-frame structure since the all-time high near $125,000.<\/p>\n<p>For now, Bitcoin has staged what Mayne called \u201crelatively constructive\u201d price action\u2014higher lows are forming, and a four-hour bullish structure break is underway. But the market has yet to print a higher high on the H4 chart. \u201cI need follow-through,\u201d he said. \u201cI need a higher high here.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Lower High Before the Next Bear Market?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Mayne reiterated that he still assigns a 70%\u201380% probability to Bitcoin forming a lower high rather than a new all-time high. But that probability \u201cdrops to 50\u201360%\u201d if bulls reclaim $98K and break the downtrend. The level, he said, would also confirm the weekly cycle low\u2014setting up what he believes would be the final rally of the four-year cycle before a bear market in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Cycle catalysts, he added, include the end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening, renewed liquidity expectations, and sentiment shifts such as Vanguard enabling IBIT buying. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">CoinGecko<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>For bulls, the ideal scenario is a clean breakout: \u201cI want to see price just go. I don\u2019t want people to have time to get in.\u201d Choppy consolidation around the yearly open would instead resemble a \u201cbear flag,\u201d increasing the odds the lower high is already in.<\/p>\n<p>Mayne outlined two critical trendline guides: a break above the downtrend line signals bullish continuation, while a break of the rising short-term trendline would indicate the structure is \u201ccooked.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Despite the near-term optimism, Mayne stressed caution. His personal strategy is to sell spot positions into strength\u2014ideally near $100K or higher\u2014before a larger cyclical pullback that could revisit $50K\u2013$60K. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAny sign of weakness at the yearly open, 98K, 100K, 105\u2013110K\u2014derisk, hedge, ready to get the **out,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Should Bitcoin fail to break higher, he expects opportunities on the short side: \u201cA bear market is just the inverse of a bull market\u2026just invert the chart.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dollar Dynamics Align\u2014for Now<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Mayne said macro signals are supportive, noting USD dominance is pulling back and the U.S. dollar index is rejecting a key resistance. \u201cWe want to see this make one more low. That\u2019s the best case for stocks, for crypto, for everything.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is perched on its most important resistance since topping out. A decisive push through $98K\u2013$100K could shift market structure, sentiment, and cycle dynamics all at once. Failure there may confirm the top is already in. <\/p>\n<p>As Mayne put it: \u201cThe bulls still have work to do. The bears are still in control.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Bitcoin Bulls Applying Pressure! Can they Break the Downtrend?\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fkM1QPT_mfI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is pressing up against one of its most consequential resistance zones of the cycle, and popular crypto analyst Trader Mayne says the next few days will determine whether bulls&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9839,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17291"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17292,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17291\/revisions\/17292"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9839"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}