{"id":16944,"date":"2025-11-30T16:42:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T16:42:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/arthur-hayes-tethers-fed-bet-is-risky-one-misstep-could-nuke-usdt\/"},"modified":"2025-11-30T16:42:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T16:42:10","slug":"arthur-hayes-tethers-fed-bet-is-risky-one-misstep-could-nuke-usdt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/arthur-hayes-tethers-fed-bet-is-risky-one-misstep-could-nuke-usdt\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes: Tether\u2019s Fed bet is risky, one misstep could nuke USDT"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-detail__content blocks\">\n<p class=\"is-style-lead\">Arthur Hayes warned that Tether is running a risky interest rate trade that could threaten USDT solvency if markets move against the stablecoin issuer.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cn-block-summary-block_a0f3251a63084401beea11695d4b0512\" class=\"cn-block-summary\">\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__nav tabs\">\n        <span class=\"tabs__item is-selected\">Summary<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"cn-block-summary__content\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Arthur Hayes says a 30% drop in Tether\u2019s BTC and gold could erase its equity.<\/li>\n<li>Hayes argues the company\u2019s interest-rate strategy may strain USDT solvency.<\/li>\n<li>Tether shuts Uruguay mining as reserves hit $181B dominated by U.S. Treasuries.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .cn-block-summary --><\/p>\n<p>The BitMEX co-founder analyzed Tether\u2019s latest attestation report and noted that a 30% decline in the company\u2019s Bitcoin and gold holdings would wipe out equity.<\/p>\n<p>The stablecoin issuer holds $9.86 billion in Bitcoin and $12.92 billion in precious metals according to its asset breakdown.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes wrote on X that the company appears to be betting on Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would crush their interest income from U.S. Treasury bills and other fixed-income assets.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hayes questions Tether\u2019s balance sheet math<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cThe Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade,\u201d Hayes posted. \u201cThey are buying gold and BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">$BTC<\/a> that should in theory moon as the price of money falls.\u2026 <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZGhQRP4SVF\">pic.twitter.com\/ZGhQRP4SVF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1994915256150495652?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">November 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The former BitMEX CEO calculated that a roughly 30% drop in combined gold and Bitcoin positions would eliminate Tether\u2019s equity cushion. \u201cThen USDT would be in theory insolvent,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes predicted that large USDT holders and exchanges will demand real-time balance sheet access to monitor solvency risks. \u201cGet out your popcorn, I expect the MSM to run wild with this,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<p>One X user defended Tether\u2019s strategy, explaining that Bitcoin and gold purchases come from profits and excess reserves rather than newly issued USDT. \u201cThey only mint when there\u2019s demand, and the BTC\/gold allocations are made using the surplus they generate,\u201d the user wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1994919054734495990\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">questioned<\/a> this explanation. \u201cThat was my assumption as well, but then why are their cash assets how they define them less than outstanding liabilities? What am I missing here?\u201d he replied.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- .cn-block-related-link --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tether shuts down Uruguay mining operations<\/h2>\n<p>In other Tether news, the stablecoin issuer confirmed it is closing its mining venture in Uruguay after electricity pricing negotiations failed.<\/p>\n<p>The company is letting go of approximately 30 of its 38 staff members in the country as the business winds down.<\/p>\n<p>The stablecoin issuer\u2019s total reserves stand at $181.22 billion backing circulating tokens. U.S. Treasury bills comprise $112.42 billion of holdings, making up the largest asset category.<\/p>\n<p>The company also holds $17.99 billion in overnight reverse repurchase agreements and $6.41 billion in money market funds.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes warned that Tether is running a risky interest rate trade that could threaten USDT solvency if markets move against the stablecoin issuer. Summary Arthur Hayes says a 30%&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16944"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16944\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16945,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16944\/revisions\/16945"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitunikey.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}