ICE is making a strategic pivot toward alternative data, capitalizing on Polymarket’s proven accuracy in forecasting real-world events to sell a new form of intelligence to hedge funds and asset managers.
- ICE is investing $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at $8 billion pre-investment.
- The NYSE owner will distribute Polymarket’s event-driven data to institutional clients globally.
- The deal marks a major institutional endorsement of decentralized prediction markets.
According to a press release dated Oct. 7, Intercontinental Exchange will invest up to $2 billion in cash in the decentralized prediction-market platform Polymarket, valuing the five-year-old company at $8 billion before the investment.
The cornerstone of the deal is not just the capital injection. It grants the NYSE owner exclusive global rights to distribute Polymarket’s raw, event-driven probability data directly to its network of institutional clients, turning the platform’s crowdsourced sentiment into a packaged financial product.
ICE and Polymarket signal a new era for prediction markets
For Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan, the ICE deal represents a watershed moment of institutional validation. He characterized the partnership as “a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” signaling a departure from the platform’s niche, crypto-native origins.
“By combining ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer savvy, we will be able to deliver world-class products for the modern investor. Realizing the potential of new technologies, such as tokenization, will require collaboration between established market leaders and next-generation innovators,” Coplan said.
The development follows Polymarket’s return to the U.S. market earlier this year after a regulatory hiatus. In 2022, the platform was effectively pushed offshore by federal authorities for continuing to allow U.S.-based traders despite a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Polymarket regained a domestic foothold by acquiring QCX, a lesser-known derivatives exchange, shortly after prosecutors closed an investigation into the company’s prior operations. The move also brought Donald Trump Jr. onto Polymarket’s advisory board.
